China wants a deal, Trump can smell it! It’s why they’re printing yuan in the billions and pushing it out into the system.
Right now, two things are making Trump upset. Higher interest rates and a strong dollar. Both of which are conveniently out of his control.
Debt is a scary thing. Especially since most of us in debt are paying interest on top of interest. For the government though, debt seems pretty OK. Or at least, that’s how some think.
This is now the longest government shutdown in US history, and no one has any clue as to how much longer it will last.
The Fed were planning to ‘normalise’ monetary policy very slowly. They didn’t expect much turbulence. The truth is that it’s not shaping out to be that way. Markets have been jolting all year.
The Fed is looking at one more interest rate hike this year and three in 2019…or so they said. But investors aren’t buying it.
If you are not familiar with bonds, they are basically a loan agreement. Usually the longer the term of the debt, the higher the yield since the risk is higher. Yet sometimes, this curve inverts.
The US may be looking like it is on a winning streak, but US consumers are basing future expectation on past performance. The problem with this thinking is that it is flawed.
To jump or not to jump out of a volatile market, that’s the question the mainstream is asking right now. What if you’re close to retirement and you’re just holding the market right now?
When the stock market responds to strong economic news with falls, it’s not a bullish sign, folks. Why? Because it means the Fed will continue raising rates.
The Fed must surely realise the ‘low for longer’ strategy has painted them into a corner…damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
It’s coming. We’ve dodged the bullet this year. But we may want to start preparing for a crisis sometime between 2019 and 2021!
Markets are always looking at the glass, measuring one half against the other. Investors are always trying to guess whether the glass is filling up or emptying out.
In 2014, I adapted the story There Was an Old Lady Who Swallowed a Fly, to describe the absurdity of the Fed’s actions in handling crises of their making.