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Property
They say it can’t be done, but here at Wealth Morning we attempt to broadly forecast what’s coming next for the economy.
Once you understand the underlying forces which drive the economy, you will have access to insight that few people ever attain.
It has less to do with the movement of central banks or the stock market. Or movements in interest rates, inflation, or some other mechanism.
It’s based on the real estate market.
What happens in the real estate market underlies the economic cycle. And the cycle simply continues to repeat.
Property Markets History
A man by the name of Homer Hoyt identified the repetition of this real estate cycle in a book written back in 1933, called ‘One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago.’
A study of history as Homer Hoyt did it, with a focus on land values, proved the economy moved in a very clear sequence of roughly 18 to 20 year cycles.
It’s directly related to land price and it repeats regardless of government policies and the type of government in power.
And nothing has changed since Homer Hoyt wrote the book in 1933. The real estate cycle simply keeps reaffirming itself.
The financial reforms initiated after the global financial crisis, have only guaranteed yet another real estate cycle, as that crisis was not financial in nature.
It was a land crisis
And whilst the underlying cause of the cycle is ignored, the real estate cycle must repeat.
Bridges Over Troubled Waters
Simon Bridges announced a raft of changes aiming to get New Zealand moving. And with super-low interest rates, maybe he’s ready to hit his sweet spot next year?
Destination New Zealand: 1984
History repeats. And when you’re falling backwards into the mire, someone should call it out.
Alternatives to the Rip-Off Auckland Property Market
I’m still unconvinced Auckland has found the floor in the current environment. Nor do I believe for a moment, the recent slash to the OCR will change that.
We Answer Your Money Questions
If you want to make money — whatever route you choose — the road to profit is paved with both opportunity and crisis. No risk, no reward.
NZ Economy: The Big Picture
As investors, it’s easy to become overwhelmed with all of the issues and trends affecting our wealth. Some good. Some bad. It’s critical to determine which is which.
Put Your Money to Work While Others Sleep
I’ve concluded there are 4 types of people when it comes to investing and money.
How to Beat Your Property Investing Pain — Part Two
As I write this, it’s clear to anyone trying to sell a home that the boom days are gone. The bubble will probably continue to suck slowly inwards rather than burst without a parachute.
How to Beat Your Property Investing Pain — Part One
Like me, you’re probably tired of hearing that we’re overdue for a house price correction. But this time, things are different.
Here’s What the Banking Industry Won’t Tell You
Central bankers are often revered as the captains at the helm of the global economy. It’s as if their actions dictate the trajectory of the future
11 Signs of a Global Crisis — Part One
These signs may just be the prelude to a seismic shift that’s beginning to rattle the economy, both here in New Zealand and around the world.
Are Speculating Land Prices the Cause of Economic Boom/Bust Cycles?
New technology, better ways of doing things, all feed into a rising land price. And then people start to speculate in it. And there’s your cycle.
Is the Noose Tightening on Kiwi Homeowners?
You never get the full story in the news. You read about Auckland property values easing off. A decline in confidence. Then you put your ear to the street.
Have We Passed ‘Peak Prosperity’?
There are three important decisions in life: What you do…with whom you do it…and where you do it. What. Who. Where. Keep it simple.
Ireland’s ‘Great Crumble’
Claptrap comes in many guises and disguises. Sometimes, it is based on inconsequential error. Sometimes, it is just bad judgment.