I’ve always been fascinated by George Lazenby.

His story is an astonishing one.

Quite simply, it’s about blind luck.

George Lazenby and Diana Rigg on the set of On Her Majesty’s Secret Service.
Source: ETH-Bibliothek Zürich / Wikimedia Commons

In 1968, Lazenby was an Australian car salesman turned model who had settled in London, trying to build a career:

• That’s when he got lucky. One day, he bumped into legendary producer Albert R. Broccoli. Both men were getting their hair cut at the same barbershop.

• At the time, Broccoli was searching for a replacement for Sean Connery, who had just exited the role of James Bond.

• Lazenby had never acted in a film before. He had no training. No résumé. No connections. His only notable appearance was in an advertisement for chocolate bars. Nonetheless, Broccoli liked Lazenby and invited him to do a screen test.

This was the opportunity of a lifetime, and Lazenby jumped at the chance:

• He turned up to the audition wearing a suit that Connery’s own tailor had made. It was a bold move. It signalled confidence.

• During the screen test itself, Lazenby accidentally punched the stunt coordinator in the face. His raw energy impressed the producers.

• They offered Lazenby US$80,500 to play James Bond. That’s approximately US$770,000 in inflation-adjusted terms today. What a stroke of luck. He had just won the most coveted role in cinema, becoming Connery’s successor.

Lazenby went on to make On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, which was released in 1969:

• The film grossed more than US$80 million worldwide (US$725 million in today’s money).

• So, by that point, Lazenby had it all. Fame. Money. Opportunity. He was offered a seven-film contract to play James Bond, along with a bonus of a million dollars.

But here’s where the story takes a sudden dramatic turn:

• Ronan O’Rahilly, who was Lazenby’s manager, wasn’t impressed by the contract. He told Lazenby to turn it down. Why? Well, because they were entering a new decade: the 1970s. This was the era of Easy Rider. Long hair. Bell-bottoms. Hippies chanting about peace and free love.

• So, given the shifting cultural landscape, would James Bond remain relevant? The image of a British patriot in a tuxedo, indulging in martinis and violence, felt like a stale institution. A relic falling out of fashion.

• O’Rahilly believed that Lazenby could find better opportunities elsewhere. Lazenby agreed and walked away from Bond. Just like that.

• Tragically, it was a mistake. Lazenby’s acting career stalled, going nowhere. Meanwhile, the Bond franchise continued to soar in popularity, earning billions and spanning more than half a century.

In retrospect, Lazenby remains haunted by his decision:

• In 2015, he said: ‘We thought Bond was over. We were wrong. Sometimes I wish I’d done one more just to shut the people up who think I failed.’

• One bad move. A lifetime of regret. Ouch.

Now, you might think that Lazenby’s story is a freak accident. How could such a lucky guy become so unlucky so quickly?

• But here’s the thing. Lazenby’s experience isn’t unique at all. In fact, people make confident predictions all the time, only to get them spectacularly wrong.

• So, with that in mind, I want to take a look at a few other misfires from the past. These historical errors are so big that they are mind-blowing…

Consider the banker who scoffed at the automobile

Source: Doug W / Wikimedia Commons

In 1903, Horace Rackham was a lawyer who was thinking about investing in the Ford Motor Company:

• At the time, Ford was preparing to mass-produce a new automobile, the Ford Model A. Rackham had little knowledge about manufacturing. However, he had a gut feeling that this could be a turning point.

• So he sought financial advice from the president of the Michigan Savings Bank. But the banker scoffed of the idea, discouraging Rackham: ‘The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad.’

• Fortunately, Rackham ignored that pessimism. He scraped together US$5,000 and bought into the Ford Motor Company anyway.

• This proved to be a smart move. Later, in 1919, Edsel Ford (Henry Ford’s son) bought those same shares back from Rackham for US$12.5 million. That’s a cool US$240 million in today’s money.

• The banker, presumably, kept his horse.

Consider the Nobel laureate who bet on the Soviet Union

Source: Bernard Gotfryd / Wikimedia Commons

Paul Samuelson was the first American to win the Nobel Prize for economics. His textbook, Economics: An Introductory Analysis, was wildly popular and studied in classrooms everywhere:

• In 1961, Samuelson made a prediction. He said that the Soviet economy would catch up to the United States and overtake it.

• The years rolled into decades. But he refused to budge. As late as 1989, he was still sticking by his claim, insisting that the Soviet command system was proof that socialism could thrive.

• That’s when reality intervened. In 1991, the Soviet Union suddenly collapsed in a self-induced heart attack. Its economy was in severe crisis: triple-digit inflation, huge food shortages, and depleted financial reserves.

• At that point, Samuelson was forced to delete the word ‘thrive’ from the pages of his textbook, pencilling question marks beside the Soviet data.

• Here was the smartest economist in America. Fooled by communist propaganda. Imagine that.

Consider the author who sold financial panic

Source: Goodreads

In 1985, economist Ravi Batra published a book with an apocalyptic title, The Great Depression of 1990. Then, shortly after, he followed up with a sequel, Surviving the Great Depression of 1990:

• These books became runaway sensations, allowing Batra to hit The New York Times bestseller list.

• But — surprise, surprise — no depression ever arrived. In fact, the 1980s and 1990s gave us one of the biggest economic expansions in modern history.

• The S&P 500 delivered annualised gains of nearly 18% for two decades straight. That’s way above the historical 10% average.

• This was an extraordinary period of prosperity for the world. In other words: Batra not only missed the mark, but he missed it by a country mile.

Consider the CEO who laughed at the iPhone

Source: Jesús Gorriti / Wikimedia Commons

In 2007, Steve Ballmer was the CEO of Microsoft. That’s when a reporter asked him what he thought about Apple’s newly launched smartphone:

• Ballmer laughed: ‘There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.’

• In his eyes, the iPhone had a fatal flaw. It had no physical keyboard. Just a touchscreen. Who would ever use something as useless as that?

• But, oh, how wrong Ballmer was. By August 2018, Apple had gone from strength to strength. It became the first company in history to reach US$1 trillion in market cap.

• The irony of all this? Well, Apple’s success was driven largely by the very iPhone that Ballmer had laughed at. Call it poetic justice, if you will.

The bottom line

Yogi Berra once said: ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.’

• I think there’s a lesson to be learned here. There’s no crystal ball. Nobody knows the future. Not the banker. Not the Nobel laureate. Not the billionaire CEO.

• Everyone has biases. Everyone is just guessing. And, occasionally, they guess wrong.

So, as investors, what can we realistically do to prepare ourselves for the future?

• Well, firstly, I think we should treat every bold prediction with healthy scepticism. History shows that the most dangerous forecasts are often the most loudly promoted. The ones that sell books or generate clicks are rarely the ones that prove accurate.

• Also, I think it’s important to focus on process rather than prophecy. We cannot control what the economy will do next year. What we can control is how much we invest and how broadly we diversify. These are the variables that have mattered most over the years.

• Finally, we should aim to cultivate evidence-based optimism. It’s the recognition that human resilience has overcome far worse predictions than the ones we hear today. The people who missed the great bull markets of the past were not unlucky. They were simply listening to the wrong voices at the wrong time.

Just look at George Lazenby. Yes, he caught an extraordinary break. He became the first and only Aussie ever to play James Bond. Then he gave it up. This was deeply unfortunate:

• However, for the rest of us, we can’t control the breaks we receive. We can only decide what to do with the opportunities in front of us. Right here. Right now.

• Here’s what I’ve noticed. Most investors who have built lasting wealth don’t rely on predicting the future correctly. Instead, they rely on a calm and steady process. They avoid hype. They avoid sensationalism. Instead, they allow the magic of compounding to do its quiet work.

• I suspect that this kind of resilience may be the most reliable wealth generator in human history. Luck, if it plays any role at all, must surely favour those who stay in the game long enough to let good fortune find them.

Our Upcoming Coffee & Capital Event

Does financial freedom matter to you? Are you looking for common sense? Well, I want to extend an invitation for you to come join us at our next live event. Here’s what we’ll cover:

• The property supercycle in New Zealand is now drawing to a close. It’s the end of an era. How can investors adapt to this historic shift?

• The National Party is pushing for KiwiSaver contributions to go higher. But is it time to look beyond nanny-state politics? Is it time to make better personal choices for growth and passive income today?

• Economic worries and tax grievances are now hitting Australia. Could this actually benefit New Zealand in the long run? We’ll discuss why New Zealand might be the better choice for investors.

• In the aftermath of the Iran war, the world is hungry for energy. Is this creating an opportunity to invest in high-value infrastructure?

• We look forward to engaging with you in person. And as always, your comments and questions.

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Regards,

John Ling

Analyst, Wealth Morning

(This article is the author’s personal opinion and commentary only. It is general in nature and should not be construed as any financial or investment advice. Wealth Morning offers Managed Account Services for Wholesale or Eligible investors as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013.)