Monthly, we update our wholesale investors on what’s happening in the market. Running what’s probably the only late-night trading desk from New Zealand, we’re well-positioned to feel the pulse of the market’s direction.

 

A wet person does not fear the rain.

—Ancient proverb

 

Yes, March has seen some of the steepest drawdown since 2022 on war fears.

But I tend to agree with Bill Ackman:

 

Source: Bill Ackman / X

 

So we’ve been buying where we can.

There’s been much local panic about fuel and the oil price spike bursting inflation.

Yes, this has been temporarily hard on our real estate holdings. They risk facing higher borrowing costs.

But we’ve been here before and learnt that this is the prime time to acquire more when they’re oversold.

The advantage of our trading desk is we work nights and see global markets live. We’ve seen the sudden boomerang back up when the end of war comes into sight.

In fact, this is the consistent pattern of wars through history.

Markets don’t wait for peace treaties.

They bottom when the probability of a better outcome rises, even if the war is still raging.

Some good news can then spur major upside.

Markets are always looking ahead. Because over the long run, they’re driven by earnings and economic growth:

 

Source: Peter Mallouk / LinkedIn

 

Media — who tend to be on the left, particularly in this country — seem more prone to panic. They ignore the resilience of people.

When we had an oil crisis in the 1970s, people came up with solutions. They converted their vehicles to natural gas.

The same will happen again. If the tankers can’t come from Korea, entrepreneurs will get supply from the US Gulf Coast or other markets. Hopefully, this will kickstart again our own local exploration industry.

 

Managed Account performance*

 

For the month of March 2026, we were down 5.45% across the composite portfolio (total aggregate TWR return across all portfolios following the strategy).

Our average annualised return since inception is 11.98% p.a.

Please see our performance chart for more details.

 

Benchmarking

 

Our MSCI EAFE benchmark was down 5.97%.

The S&P 500 benchmark was down 5.13%.

Our blended MSCI EAFE/S&P 500 benchmark was down 5.84%.

Our long exposure to quality energy assets has helped us keep abreast of our main benchmark this month.

 

The next move

 

There may still be a good opportunity with oversold real estate stocks right now.

We’re looking to capture as much value as we can before the peace dividend comes.

This is no time for sissies.

Finally, look out for our new analyst Arian Tashakkori. Iranian-born, he understands what it means to live under illiberal government. His first piece will be hitting Wealth Morning emails later this month.

 

Regards,

Simon Angelo

Editor, Wealth Morning 

*Past performance is not an indicator for future performance. Your actual portfolio will differ from the composite portfolio mentioned. The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy an investment, nor should it be construed as investment advice. Wealth Morning Managed Accounts are available to Eligible Investors and Wholesale Investors (not to Retail Investors) as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act (2013).

 

 

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