Monthly, we update our wholesale investors on what’s happening in the market. Running what’s probably the only late-night trading desk from New Zealand, we’re well-positioned to feel the pulse of the market’s direction.
‘Beware of an old man in a hurry.’
January certainly lived up to that adage.
The month opened with geopolitical theatre: on January 3, Operation Absolute Resolve saw Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife captured.
Source: The White House / X
A few weeks later, President Trump launched into ambitious Greenland negotiations, sending European capitals — and a few pearl-clutchers in Ponsonby — into a brief flutter.
Markets wobbled mid-month, recovered, then softened again. But as always, politics is rarely the true engine of market gyration. The deeper forces are quieter: liquidity, interest rates, and the price of money.
Source: Google Finance
On January 20, Japan’s borrowing costs hit all‑time highs as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election on a stimulus platform.
Simultaneously, tariff threats over Greenland unsettled bond markets. Investors wondered whether European allies might need to issue more debt to bolster defence spending.
Calm eventually returned as a Greenland deal was reached. But an old chill resurfaced: inflation.
Expectations for interest‑rate cuts have faded. The Federal Reserve held firm. Here in Australasia, we may now face the opposite — rate hikes.
Managed Account performance*
For the month of January 2026, we were down 1.29% across the composite portfolio (total aggregate TWR return across all portfolios following the strategy).
Our average annualised return since inception is 13.95% p.a.
Please see our performance chart for more details.
Benchmarking
Our MSCI EAFE benchmark was up 3.81%.
The S&P 500 benchmark was up 1.17%.
Our blended MSCI EAFE/S&P 500 benchmark was up 3.41%.
Forex impacts in January
Most accounts are in NZD, so a stronger NZD reduces the reported value of offshore assets — even when those stocks have risen in their local markets. That’s what’s softened returns this month.
The upside is that a stronger NZD gives us better buying power offshore right now.
Is the market overbought?
After a strong year (+29% for our portfolios), this question naturally arises.
Our view: we continue to find pockets of compelling value.
A lift in inflation creates short‑run opportunity, particularly in:
- Quality real estate.
- Resources.
- Technology.
A softer US dollar finally gives us room to buy American value — aligning neatly with Trump’s ambition to boost exports and narrow the trade deficit.
Source: GordonGekko / X
Meanwhile, expect ongoing support for the debasement trade: real assets, gold, and asset‑backed stocks.
On a longer horizon, NZD.USD is drifting closer to its 10‑year average in the mid‑0.60s. No need for excitement yet.
But we do have an exciting invitation for you…
Coffee & Capital
To explore 2026’s opportunities, we invite you to our next live event!
Source: Fields Café
We’ll cover:
- Your questions.
- The AI boom.
- Geopolitics.
- Commodity crunch.
- Inflation threat.
- US-led bull market.
COFFEE & CAPITAL
Friday, 27 February 2026
11:00am to 12:00pm
✅ Register For Your Place Now
Fields Café (Function Room)
4 Appian Way, Albany, Auckland
$37 per person / limited spaces
Includes any menu item, coffee
[ Special Member Price ]
For Managed Account clients & Quantum Wealth subscribers
✅ Register For Your Place Now
$27 per person / limited spaces
Includes any menu item, coffee
Regards,
Simon Angelo
Editor, Wealth Morning
*Past performance is not an indicator for future performance. Your actual portfolio will differ from the composite portfolio mentioned. The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy an investment, nor should it be construed as investment advice. Wealth Morning Managed Accounts are available to Eligible Investors and Wholesale Investors (not to Retail Investors) as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act (2013).
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Simon is the Chief Executive Officer and Publisher at Wealth Morning. He has been investing in the markets since he was 17. He recently spent a couple of years working in the hedge-fund industry in Europe. Before this, he owned an award-winning professional-services business and online-learning company in Auckland for 20 years. He has completed the Certificate in Discretionary Investment Management from the Personal Finance Society (UK), has written a bestselling book, and manages global share portfolios.