Monthly, we update our wholesale investors on what’s happening in the market. Running what’s probably the only late-night trading desk from New Zealand, we’re well-positioned to feel the pulse of the market’s direction.
The first half of March went dark.
Robust job growth reported for February (+275k jobs in the US) bolstered the view that the Fed didn’t need to be in any hurry to cut interest rates.
This was a good time to buy. Clients with available funds would have seen several good trades bolster their accounts between March 10 – 20.
Then, around March 20, the Fed reminded investors that three rate cuts should still be coming this year.
So, in this credit-based economy in which we exist, things got going again.
As you know by now, we like to buy when it’s dark. Well, literally, since we’re also at a night-trading desk four nights a week.
In the second half of this month, though, it was time to just sit and watch. Prices, particularly for some of our property and materials positions, started to catch a bid.
The bad news was for the New Zealand dollar.
After the recession here was announced, it fell against all the majors.
Of course, this was great for our many accounts invested across other currencies and diversified globally.
But it did create a headwind in deploying new money in NZD.
Over the next few months, this should improve. Expect volatility before the next Fed meetings in May (no change expected) and June (rate cut expected).
Volatility = opportunity.
Yes, there could be opportunity prior to those meetings to buy enduring value.
Managed Account performance*
For the month of March 2024, we were up 6.26% across the composite portfolio (total aggregate return across all portfolios following the strategy).
Our MSCI EAFE benchmark was up 2.65%.
Composite average, annualised returns are now 14.92% since 2015.
Please see our performance chart for more details.
We are keeping our eyes fixed on the big picture
Swiss National Bank, Bern. The Swiss have cut interest rates in a surprise move.
Source: Flickr/Guido Gloor Modjib
On the macro view, this is a great time to invest.
The US is driving the bulk of global expansion. With an economy this size, they look on track to add $1 trillion in nominal economic activity this year. That’s about the equivalent of adding an economy four times the size of New Zealand — or two-thirds the size of Australia.
European prospects are also looking up, with an improvement in activity expected this year, and the Swiss being the first to cut interest rates.
We are positioning for the changing interest-rate cycle in developed markets globally. And are seeing very compelling opportunities in property, materials, energy, and AI.
Regards,
Simon Angelo
Editor, Wealth Morning
*Past performance is not an indicator for future performance. Your actual portfolio will differ from the composite portfolio mentioned. The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy an investment, nor should it be construed as investment advice. Wealth Morning Managed Accounts are available to Eligible Investors and Wholesale Investors (not to Retail Investors) as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act (2013).
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Simon is the Chief Executive Officer and Publisher at Wealth Morning. He has been investing in the markets since he was 17. He recently spent a couple of years working in the hedge-fund industry in Europe. Before this, he owned an award-winning professional-services business and online-learning company in Auckland for 20 years. He has completed the Certificate in Discretionary Investment Management from the Personal Finance Society (UK), has written a bestselling book, and manages global share portfolios.