Never underestimate the power of stupid people.

—Paulo Coelho


It’s hard to make good decisions.

Thinking people do their homework. They commit to research and trying to gain understanding. They know what they don’t know.

Equally, there are many stupid people who rush into actions without any thought. Often, they believe they’re right, and they will win without careful examination of the facts.

The latter group can do a lot of damage to themselves and to others.

With investing, it’s what you don’t know that can lead to drawdown. When it comes to assessing a company, your job is to highlight the unknowns.

Will the margin of safety you’re seeing in a stock price actually cover these unknowns?

Well, one of the most substantive unknowns is around external risk events.

These have upside and downside.

Let’s take look at one such event. Plus, an unexpected opportunity. And we’ll follow up on the logistics conversation from last time…

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