The September Effect is a market anomaly.

It’s the month where, on average, the S&P tends to be down.

Various reasons have been posited for this. The end of summer (in the northern hemisphere). Profit-taking. Tax needs. Schooling costs.

Across our Wholesale Composite Portfolios, September 2021 was no different for us. Despite a great year, when we ended up 18.47%, September was still down –1.38%. (Past performance does not indicate the future).

September 2021 was also a shocking month here in Auckland. I remember it vividly.

A terrorist attack rocked a New Lynn supermarket, with eight people being stabbed.

The next morning was a Saturday. In Devonport — one of the city’s most peaceful suburbs — I awoke to the blaring of sirens.

Around the corner, a garage was ablaze. I knew the owner. She told me later that the battery in her electric vehicle had exploded and caused the fire.

That was my second sense that electric vehicles may not yet be all they’re cracked up to be.

Hearing about a friend’s holiday, constantly delayed due to having to stop to charge their Tesla, was the first sense of that.

 

Electric-vehicle technology could be due for a major sea change.
Source: Image by Lee Rosario from Pixabay

 

Electric vehicles were hailed as the salvation to a transport carbon crisis. Yet they’re currently up to 50% more expensive to buy, more expensive to insure, place pressure on local electricity networks, raise owner concerns about range — and, as it turns out, could catch fire.

Current analyst consensus has moved away from forecasting EV growth as exponential to linear. Some see Tesla as up to 10x overvalued.

So, has this sector been overhyped? Or is the technology just at its early phase with the best yet to come?

The next phase in one key area could herald a range of exciting opportunities…

 

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