Global Opportunities Beyond the Radar

The Cost of Bad Decisions: How NZ Lost a Decade of Wealth

 

They say about 50% of American households invest in shares.

Here in New Zealand, research last year indicated it was just under 25%.

For us, that’s a pity. Shares are literally that — shares in the most productive engine in the world: business.

Eventually, a skilled investor could earn more from their assets than their day job.

But for at least half the population, their wages will go on rent and living expenses.

They have nothing left. No stake in global business. No growth.

 

The broken window fallacy

 

Last week, a shop got broken into. Hapless thieves smashed the glass frontage, making off with little when the alarm activated.

The next morning, the glazier was there fitting a new window. A local remarked that the one positive thing was that this created work for the glass business. Probably the insurance company as well.

 

Source: Image by Rudy and Peter Skitterians from Pixabay

 

On the surface, this seems to present some upside. But what is often missed is opportunity cost.

The shop owner will have an insurance excess to pay, and his insurance premiums will likely go up.

He was planning to buy some Italian leather shoes from a nearby shoe boutique.

Now he can’t afford to do that because he has to fix his window.

This means the shoe shop owner loses business. The maker of the shoes in Italy sells one less pair. And so on…

 

 

Harbour Bridge quandary

 

A few weeks ago, I was crawling towards the mouth of the Auckland Harbour Bridge in my car. It was a windy day. Then the digital signboard above lit up.

‘The bridge is closed. Please wait in your vehicle.’

For almost an hour, thousands of people on both sides of the bridge were held up. They couldn’t conduct their business. Appointments were missed. Money was blown into the sea.

As long as I’ve been in this city, they’ve been talking about the need for another harbour crossing.

 

Source: Image by Squirrel_photos from Pixabay

 

When Covid-19 hit, Auckland was thrust into extended lockdowns for years.

Yes, in the early stages, a week or two may have been warranted to understand the virus.

But in 2021, for just one case?

In my view, the socialist government went too far. The leadership — who made the final hard decisions — imposed costs that will echo for years. But you know that.

The opportunity cost of the $19 billion wage subsidy spent to subsidise people in extended lockdowns now equates to about the cost of a second harbour crossing.

But it gets worse. Before the quantitative easing — ‘money printing’ — it would have cost much less. When the government and Reserve Bank unleashed easy cash, they also moved the goalposts. And New Zealand has become much more unaffordable.

A dentist friend tells me he sees pain (beyond the tooth) even in his fairly affluent suburb. His WINZ claims have doubled.

People have been struggling. Small businesses have been doing it tough. Yet financial markets have surged again.

 

Opportunity cost

 

This all comes back to not properly considering what is lost when you invest in something else.

Opportunity cost doesn’t just shape national outcomes — it shapes personal wealth trajectories too.

So the next time you face an economic decision or disaster, ask these crucial questions:

It’s not what you do that counts. It’s what you miss out on to do it that can count even more.

 

 

Our Upcoming Coffee & Capital Event

 

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Regards,

Simon Angelo

Editor, Wealth Morning

(This article is the author’s personal opinion and commentary only. It is general in nature and should not be construed as any financial or investment advice. Please contact a licensed Financial Advice Provider to discuss your personal situation. Wealth Morning offers Managed Account Services for Wholesale or Eligible investors as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013.)

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