A healthy man has 100 problems, a sick man just one.
—Modern Proverb
I was speaking to an experienced airline pilot the other day. My 17-year-old son is weighing his career path. The pilot kindly gave up his time to share his journey with us.
It is inspiring to meet someone with a passion for their work, even after they’ve been doing it for many years. But I was interested in the downside.
Source: Anthony Angelo / aklaircrafts
I asked him: ‘Have you ever had some really hairy situations?’
He answered: ‘No. In decades of flying many different planes, no incidents. No engine failures. Modern aviation is extremely advanced and safe.’ Then he paused. ‘But at one time in my career, I was responsible for solo-piloted flights. This created a high level of anxiety.’
‘Was there any real danger?’
‘Not really. It was just the prospect of being responsible for everything.’
Now, this can also be a damaging factor in investor thinking. Perhaps even in our wider thought life.
In the absence of one very serious issue, we find 100.
Sometimes understanding and courage in the face of that very serious issue can lead to good results.
Source: Invest In Assets / X
The Iran-Israel War
So, on the weekend before this trading week, America struck Iran.
We waited nervously for markets to price the risks. Especially the prospect of retaliation — which thus far has been muted and de-escalatory.
At the trading desk, we’re looking for pockets of volatility based on transitory and overcooked anxiety. In our small operation, we aim to be the MacGyver of the investing world.
It should come as no surprise that America has attacked Iran’s nuclear sites. Israel already did the groundwork. Trump has been saying for years that Iran must never have a nuke. And so too have US allies.
In the long run, reducing the nuclear risk in the Middle East makes most of the world’s assets safer and more likely to increase in value. It also helps to protect Israel, a thriving and prosperous democracy in a tough neighbourhood.
But in the short-term, what about the disruption?
Earlier this week, all eyes turned to the Middle East. Would Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? A strait that supplies 50% of China’s total oil supply, but only 5% of America’s?
While the eyes of the world’s investors turned to this, a myriad of other concerns seems to have disappeared in a blink:
- What about all the tariffs?
- The end of US dollar hegemony?
- BRICS trampling US leadership?
- Ukraine spilling over into Europe?
- The woke destroying the West?
Inevitably, one serious peril puts 100 other threats in stark relief.
Yet, as I write, the market is not pricing in an evolving or lasting war. Oil shot up a bit. It now seems to have fallen and stabilised again. Volatility was higher. There is still a move to safe-haven assets. Interestingly, Bitcoin actually fell following the attacks.
This might be a good time to get some more reasonable equity prices amidst the volatility.
It is also a timely reminder of the value of being diversified into some safe-haven picks. For example, defensive businesses with robust assets in Western Europe and North America.
Why these particular areas? Well, that is where global wealth generation and protection has been most efficient:
Source: Visual Capitalist
As the NZ dollar (a more risk-weighted currency) weakens further, that global diversification comes into its own. There is a safe-haven asset boost with a safe-haven currency boost. There is dividend income in US dollars, sterling, and euros.
Next month at Wealth Morning, we’ll be meeting readers and clients to discuss what we’re seeing in these dynamic global markets. Come join us for brunch in Herne Bay.
[ INVITATION ]
Our Next Upcoming Live Event: Coffee & Capital
Come join us for our next friendly Coffee & Capital event.
It’s a chance to meet other investors, learn more about how we’re navigating this current market, and bring your questions or comments.
At this critical time, we’ll be unpacking key issues for our readers and investors. We’ll be talking about what is impacting the market right now…
- Trump 2.0. Is the second coming of the orange man (and tariffs) good or bad for investors? What opportunities are we seeing at the trading desk?
- Property deluge. Investing in NZ used to be all about residential property. But with falling property values and reports of a rental crunch, is this old chestnut out of steam? We look at the future for property and some alternatives as falling interest rates shine a light.
- World order disruption! Global markets are excited at the prospect of an AI earnings boom, but are disturbed by intensifying geopolitical tension and conflict. How do you navigate risk and opportunity in these strange days?
COFFEE & CAPITAL
Friday, 18 July, 2025
11:00am to 12:00pm
Goodness Café (Backroom)
228 Jervois Road, Herne Bay, Auckland
$37 per person / limited spaces
Includes any menu item, coffee
[ Special Member Price ]
For Managed Account clients & Quantum Wealth subscribers
$27 per person / limited spaces
Includes any menu item, coffee
Come join us!
Our last event sold out quickly.
Please reserve your seat today.
Regards,
Simon Angelo
Editor, Wealth Morning
(Important note: These events provide news, commentary, and general information only on financial and economic trends. They represent the speakers’ personal opinion only. They should not be construed as any financial or investment advice. To obtain financial advice for your specific situation, please consult an authorised Financial Advice Provider.)