This Could be the Most Foretold Recession Ever

Santiago Nassar didn’t sleep much the night before his murder.

Mainly because he had spent it at a wedding, celebrating the marriage of Bayardo San Roman and Angela Vicario. This had been a huge event for the small Colombian town of Manaure.

After laying down for an hour or so, he woke up at 5:30am.

He had big plans for the day too. The bishop was coming to visit, and Santiago — and the whole town — wanted to be there early to receive him. Everyone was excited— and distracted — with the visit.

Victoria, the cook, served Santiago breakfast.

She knew that Pedro and Juan Vicario were planning to kill Santiago that day, but she didn’t say anything. Mainly, because she wanted Santiago dead.

In fact, by the time Santiago started eating breakfast, the whole town already knew that the Vicario twins were plotting to kill him. That’s because the brothers had spent the whole night telling the town.

Everyone knew…except Santiago.

The Vicario brothers were looking to avenge their sister’s — Angela, the bride — honour this way.  What Santiago was also unaware of is that a couple of hours after last night’s wedding, the groom had dragged the bride back to her family.

He wasn’t upset because Angela didn’t love him. He could live with that. After all, it had been an arranged marriage. Bayardo cancelled the marriage because he had discovered Angela’s secret, that she wasn’t a virgin.

Under pressure from her mother and brothers, Angela caved, and pointed the finger at Santiago.

Was he actually the culprit? No one knows for sure. Many think Angela was protecting someone else.

Anyway, that’s when the twin brothers decide to kill Santiago…and tell the whole town.

Still, no one does anything to stop them.

Some think it’s just a rumour, others that they aren’t serious, or that Santiago must already know, since everyone else knows.

For the very few that tried to stop it, destiny got in the way.

Santiago died that day in front of his house, as the whole town watched.

And, it was only then, after it happened, that people reacted.

They went after the twins, guns blazing.

But it was too late, Santiago was dead.

There had never been a death more foretold’.

This is the story told on the novel Chronicle of a Death Foretold from Colombian author Gabriel Garcia Marquez.

Believe it or not, it’s based on a true story.

The main question the novella tries to answer is, how come everyone knew what was about to happen yet no one did anything?

Something I read yesterday reminded me of this story. [openx slug=inpost]

 

If you wait for the recession…it could be too late

There are talks of a recession everywhere. Many are predicting one…we think we are heading for one.

Markets have ended the year in the negative.  Global growth is slowing.

As Bloomberg reported:

Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge that the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

We are seeing some trying to do something to stop it. The US government is reassuring the markets, telling them that they are looking to settle the trade issue with China.

The Fed may be slowing the pace of their rate hikes for this year.

Still, some don’t believe we could be heading towards a recession…or think it’s only a rumour.

The American Association of Individual Investors’ (AAII) weekly survey tracks investor mood. This week, pessimism has taken a dive. As they noted:

Pessimism among individual investors, which had been holding at a high level, plunged to its lowest level in more than three months in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both bullish and neutral sentiment rose strongly.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 5.4 percentage points to 38.5%. This is a nine-week high. The historical average is 38.5%. […]

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell by 13.4 percentage points to 29.4%. Pessimism was last lower on October 3, 2018 (25.1%). The historical average is 30.5%.

Some investors may be taking precautions…others may be doing nothing.

To us, the benefits of taking some insurances in case it happens outweigh doing nothing, or taking on more risk.

Hold some cash, buy some gold, cut risky positions.

If you wait, by the time it happens it will be too late.

This could be the most foretold recession in history.

Best,

Selva Freigedo

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