Life of a Perma-Bear

The life of a perma-bear is tough…

You err on the side of caution. You correctly call the red flags. You build your ark.

…And the sun just keeps on shining.

Your critics laugh at you from the driver seat of their new Maserati. They take pictures of you for their social media, captioned, ‘Wrong again, Mr. Doom-and-Gloom.’

And then one day, the tides will turn.

When that happens, do you know what everyone will say about you?

Well, if you always say it’s going to rain, eventually you’ll be right.’

Here at Money Morning New Zealand, we don’t pick a side. We listen to pundits on both sides of the aisle…and try to connect the dots. The truth is, nobody knows the future. All of life is a gamble.

But you can try to stack the odds in your favour.

And part of counting cards is keeping careful track of what’s happening around you. You tally your neighbour’s chips. You remember which cards have already been played. And then you bid when the time is right.

I’d never thought I’d say this…but Kenny Rogers had some real wisdom for investors. From his song, The Gambler:

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em

Know when to fold ’em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you’re sittin’ at the table

There’ll be time enough for countin’

When the dealin’s done

Preach it, Kenny.

Except with Robert Kiyosaki, Kenny would be preaching to the choir…

Kiyosaki is the author of the ’97 bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad, one of the top personal finance books of all time. He recently warned folks that we could be heading for the ‘biggest crash in world history’.

He said:

All markets boom and bust, it’s just life. Unfortunately, we had a big crash in 2000, they called it the dotcom crash, then in 2008 it was the subprime real estate crash. The next is going to be the biggest of all. When it’s coming I don’t really know, but the foreshocks are sounding right now.

He’s not totally off-base. His latest book is called Fake. In it, he calls out the modern era of fake money and recommends people buy gold.

There’s something to that. In 1971, when President Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard, he ushered in a new age of money…an age where dollars are invisible. It means numbers on a spreadsheet don’t necessarily relate to real-life assets. A magical time.

Some embrace the fact. They say, ‘the heck with it’, and jump in feet first. They double up on stocks and max out their credit line. It’s a magical time…might as well make some magical profits.

Others, like Bill Bonner, see the fake era as an uncertainty…a threat to those who value their wealth. If you’ve worked hard and saved up, why build your house on sand? [openx slug=inpost]

Frankly, we think both sides make good points.

Since 2008, a lot of portfolios have come up positive. Lots of big returns. Lots of sales at the Maserati lot.

Leighton Roberts, co-founder of online trading platform Sharesies, had this to say about Kiyosaki’s prediction:

The market goes up and down regularly, and this is just how markets behave — it has proven very difficult to try and pick when that happens. And it really shouldn’t matter, even if you started buying shares on the highest day before the Global Financial Crisis (2008 market crash), a few years on you would be feeling very happy with yourself if you had stuck to it.

Comments like those of Kiyosaki can often put people off getting started with investing, but trying to pick these ups and downs and removing all of your money (or not investing in the first place) could result in missing out on some great upsides.

That’s a valid argument, even if it’s coming from someone who makes his money by getting people to trade.

One of our own researchers, Sam Volkering, has learned to navigate today’s uncertain waters. He’s led his subscribers to some impressive gains.

His premium research will cost you a pretty penny (think $5,000+), but it’s not without its benefits. Here’s a snapshot I took on 7th August of his current technology portfolio with the recommendations redacted:

Port Phillip Publishing

Source: Port Phillip Publishing

[Click to open new window]

718.18% gains. 247.38% gains. 155.68% gains. The track record speaks for itself — you can make money in today’s market.

But it’s not easy. Sam is an expert. He knows investing better than most. Without guidance, it can be significantly harder for average investors to make those kinds of returns.

And it’s all part of the boom and bust cycle.

Sometimes the bears are right. Sometimes the bulls are.

The best we can do is scrutinise the market and keep an eye on the red flags. When they start fluttering, we’ll be sure to let you know.

Keep calm and carry on.

Best,
Taylor Kee
Editor, Money Morning New Zealand


Taylor Kee is the lead Editor at Money Morning NZ. With a background in the financial publishing industry, Taylor knows how simple, yet difficult investing can be. He has worked with a range of assets classes, and with some of the world’s most thought-provoking financial writers, including Bill Bonner, Dan Denning, Doug Casey, and more. But he’s found his niche in macroeconomics and the excitement of technology investments. And Taylor is looking forward to the opportunity to share his thoughts on where New Zealand’s economy is going next and the opportunities it presents. Taylor shares these ideas with Money Morning NZ readers each day.


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